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Issue 006 · Defence & dual-use capital · Ukraine → Europe corridor

Funded, announced, unbuilt

Ukraine’s first defence-tech unicorn is real; most of the announced co-production is not yet.

Published · · 8 pages
Cover of Y7 Deep Field issue 006
01In one sentence

Foreign investors now lead the money going into Ukrainian defence technology, and 2026 produced the sector’s first unicorn — but audited against deals that have actually closed, funded and delivered, the capital is thin, concentrated, and — in its largest closed rounds — held through companies domiciled outside Ukraine.

04Three numbers
€49m
Ukrainian defence-tech venture capital in 2025 — against €2.6bn across European NATO members (McKinsey analysis of PitchBook data).
49%
of 2025 Ukrainian defence-tech capital came from foreign investors; another quarter from mixed rounds (AVentures DealBook).
0
export permits issued under Ukraine’s new fast-track export procedure in its first three months; more than 18 via the standard route (NSDC commission chair, 2 October 2026).
05What to watch
By Q1 2027Whether Resolution No. 875 is amended — the missing critical-weapons list, the special-fund rules and the size of the administrative fee are the reasons its own administrator gives for a fast track that has issued nothing.
OngoingWhether Rheinmetall breaks ground on the 155mm ammunition plant it announced in February 2024.
Next roundsWhether a second Ukrainian-founded defence company reaches a $1bn valuation, or UFORCE’s mark stands alone.
Each quarterThe Defence City resident count — 51 at end-August 2026 — and any carve-out letting residents pay investor dividends.
In the full issue
  1. The Brief
  2. 02What’s going on
  3. 03What it means for you
  4. The Story
  5. 01Bottom line
  6. 02How it works
  7. 03The cases
  8. 04What the evidence shows
  9. 05Who benefits
  10. 06Three interpretations
  11. 07The counter-case
  12. 08Net assessment
  13. Sources
  14. 21 numbered sources

Continue with the Story.

The full reader edition — the complete Brief and eight-part Story, with every claim sourced — is sent by email on request, usually within a day.

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